Este miércoles 26 de junio, Sandra Ley (CIDE 2006 y candidata al Ph. D. de Duke University) analizará el impacto de la violencia criminal sobre la participación electoral en México.
“To Vote or Not to Vote: Elections in the Midst of Violence”
Presenta: Sandra Ley (Duke)
Comenta: Brian J. Phillips (DEI) / Modera: Rosario Aguilar (DEP)
Fecha y lugar: miércoles 26 de junio, 1 a 2:30 hrs, sala de juntas, División de Estudios Políticos.
Abstract: Drawing from insights in the literatures on fear of crime, political behavior, and civil wars, this paper examines the impact of criminal violence on electoral participation. Organized crime groups (OCGs) have an incentive to influence elections in order to reorganize the distribution of the parties that protect them. One of the ways in which OCGs may be able to push such political reorganization is through the increased use of violence. This paper argues that the most immediate effect of such kind of violence is the electorate’s demobilization. Specifically, it tests the hypothesis that voters living under conditions of high criminal violence are less likely to turn out to vote than those living under relatively peaceful conditions. Using an original post-electoral survey conducted in Mexico in 2012, as well as an original dataset on criminal violence, this paper shows that increasing criminal activity deters voters from going to the polling station on Election Day.